After last weeks dissapointing start to the season, the Packers return to Lambeau in a short week for a huge divisional game against the Bears. The packers really cant afford to fall behind two games in the division with only six home games left, so this is as close to a must win game in September as your going to get.
Injury Update: Greg Jennings is listed as doubtful, but its unclear what that really means. Jennings says he wants to play, feels like he can play, some people are reporting the chances are closer to 50-50, but doubtful usually means the odds are closer to 20% so we'll see. If he is indeed out, look for Driver to get an increased role this week over last week, where he only saw two snaps. Even if Jennings does play, Id expect him to see an increased role. Brian Urlacher and Charles Tillman are both listed as Questionable, bit it seems they are both closer to Probable.
How the Bears are doing: They routed Indy at home last week 41-21, though Jay Cutler had his moments of sloppiness, and the defense was a bit suspect giving up 21 to a rookie QB. They are sporting a 1-0 record.
Packers-Bears recent history: This is obviously one of the best rivalries in all of sports, s theres a big history between these twp, but well look at just the recent history. The Bears won four straight at Lambeau between 2004-07, but Aaron Rodgers is undefeated in his career against the Bears at Lambeau, going 4-0. Add that to his 3-2 record in soldier Field, and he has an impressive 7-2 overall record against the Bears. Rodgers also has an 11-1 home record in his career in division games, the best winning percentage in home division games for a starting quarterback in NFL history. Cutler is 1-6 in his career against the Pack, (one of the starts was for the Broncos) with seven touchdowns and twelve interceptions. Cutler has 1 touchdown to six interceptions in two starts at Lambeau, both losses. The Bears have averaged 13.8 points per game in Cutlers six starts against the Packers. the Packers have averaged 21.1 points per game in Rodgers nine starts against the Bears. Rodgers has 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his career against the Bears. Rodgers has only won two games in his career when the Packers have trailed after the 3rd quarter, both of those wins have came against the Bears, both in 2009.
They two keys in this one will be to protect the quarterback, and win the turnover battle. Cutler has been known to throw a ton of picks against the Packers, and the Bears are by far the team that has picked Rodgers off the most in his career. Both of these teams have big question marks at offensive line, if they give their QBs good protection, which is unlikely, but if they both do, it could be a shootout. If they both give bad protection, it could be a sloppy game in the teens to low twenties. If one team gives significantally better protection than the other, that team will win, guaranteed.
Pick: This will not be an easy win for the Packers, and I am very nervous about their prospects in this game. However, I think a Thursday night game really benefits the home team, especially if their previous game was also at home. I think the Packers will offer better protection to Rodgers than the Bears O-line do to Cutler. I think the Packers will force three turnovers, and that will be the difference. Pick: Packers 27 Bears 23
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