The Packers and 49ers were the two best teams by record in the NFC last season. However, they both had one major weakness, and they were both upended in the playoffs by the same team who was able to exploit both of their major weaknesses. Both teams spent the whole offseason improving and fixing that weakness, and now these two teams, retooled for success face off in the first game of the season as a potential precursor to the NFC championship game.
Trivia of the week: How many consecutive home games have the Packers forced at least one turnover?
That weakness for the Packers was defense, mainly pass rush. They worked to fix that by drafting Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy, two guys with tremendous upside, able to make an immediate impact. The 49ers weakness was playmakers on offense, mainly at the wide receiver position. They worked to fix that by signing future hall of famer Randy Moss, and super bowl champion Mario Manningham.
Many people will say this is just the first game of the season, and a loss wont be a big deal. And while its true, that a loss in week one doest crush super bowl hopes immediately, it can have a negative impact on a potential playoff run. For a good example, look no further to last season. The Saints and Packers played on opening weekend, if the Saints had won that game, they would have ended up as the number one seed in the NFC instead of their eventual 3 seed. Such a difference may have been enough to allow them to have ended up in the super bowl. The winner of this game basically takes a two game lead over the other in the standings, because of a automatic win in case of a tie, and these two teams dont lose much, so its a big hole to fall in right out of the gate.
The Packers have beaten the 49ers in eight straight games, dating all the way back to 1999. In those eight games the 49ers have averaged a mere 16.1 points per. Rodgers has a career 2-0 record against San Francisco.
Last Matchup: December 5th, 2010. Aaron Rodgers threw for 298 yards and Donald Driver had what was probably the play of the season on his long touchdown reception. The Packers won 34-16 in their throwback uniforms.
The Packers gave up an average of 104 more yards per game than the 49ers did last year, but the Packers averaged 125 more pass yards per game on offense than the 49ers did. They key to this game may very well be the turnover battle. Both teams had a tremenous turnover ratio last season, and if the 49ers force more turnovers, its going to be hard to make up for them against such a good defense. If the Packers force more, well they simply dont lose under Aaron Rodgers when that happens. In games in which Rodgers is the starter, the Packers are 39-5 in games where they force more turnover, three of those five losses occured in Rodgers rookie season.
The number one matchup in this game is probably Marshall Newhouse vs Justin Smith. Smith is one of the best, if not the best pass rushers in the NFL and Newhouse had a very rough preseason. If I wasnt so confident in Rodgers ability to evade pressure Id be more worried about this, but I dont remember many games, if any, in the Rodgers era where the Packers lost because of the other teams pass rush.
Which brings me to my prediction. Im not sure how improved the defense will be this year, but it will be improved. Despite all the hype about the 49ers defense, they did get carved up by Brees in the playoffs last year, and Brees was the only top tier quarterback they faced last year, so there no reason Rodgers cant do the same. I dont think the Packers will lose their home opener at Lambeau, still fueled by last years playoff defeat I say Packers 27-17
Trivia answer: 60 (including pre and postseason) The last time the Packers didnt force a turnover at home was October of 2006 against the Rams. The Packers are 42-18 in those sixty games.
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